Fiscal drag is the process by which a government can stealthily increase the tax they collect by leaving the thresholds and bands unchanged (or insufficiently changed) as incomes rise with inflation. If that happens for one or two low-inflation years, you’ll hardly notice it. But if it happens over a long period, or in a year of high inflation, you will notice. Unfortunately, both of those things are now the case! The important tax thresholds have been frozen for five years, and inflation is no longer trivial.
Five years ago, someone with a sufficiently profitable limited company might have looked with their accountant at the tax landscape, and their domestic income requirements, and decided to draw £50,000 a year from their company. They’d have known that they’d get a tax bill themselves of around £3,000, leaving them with effective net pay of £47,000 (or a little under £4,000 a month). That might have been fine to meet their requirements both for current spending and personal saving, and they’d stop there, given the sharp increase in tax rates if they paid themselves more.
Similarly, someone else might have figured out they’d draw £100,000, knowing they’d wind up paying tax of £20,000, leaving them with a net for the year of £80,000. Again, if that was enough to meet their aspirations they’d probably stick there - above that level of income you begin to lose your tax-free personal allowance, leading to some brutal tax rates between there and about £125,000.
If the bands don’t move for a year or so, it’s no big deal. If inflation is 2%, the things that used to cost you £47,000 now cost you £48,000. You might not even notice, and if you did notice you could manage it by just cutting down on treats, or rebalancing between saving and spending, allocating a bit more of your income to now, and a bit less to the future.
But if there are two years of 2% inflation, a couple of years of 4%, and then a year of 10%, you’ve got a problem. The things that used to cost £47,000 now cost £58,000! Maybe you can still cope by saving less, or saving nothing, or digging into savings. But even when all the treats are long gone most people will find that the maths doesn’t work and that they’re going to have to change something, and most likely pay themselves more and move into a higher tax bracket.
There’s more to it than tax, though.
Our £50,000 person has a couple of kids. If they can cap their income at £50,000 (and they don’t have a partner earning more), then the household gets to keep all its Child Benefit. But if their income goes above that level, they’ll have to start giving it back. Taking that and the increased dividend tax rate into account, the effective tax rate on the next £10,000 is nearly 55%! £5,500 for the government, £4,500 for the household (if they've got a Student Loan, then the effective rate will be even higher - 64%).
Leaving the bands unchanged for so long has really made a punishing difference, as more and more people are dragged into higher bands. If that Child Benefit threshold had risen with inflation over the years, the kind of employees who were originally deemed to not be earning quite enough to repay any of it would, obviously, still not be earning quite enough to repay any of it. Because the threshold has not changed at all, but their salary has, they’re having to repay all of it! The higher rate tax threshold has been frozen for five years - that Child Benefit threshold has been unchanged for 10.
Our £100,000 case could have even bigger problems. They gave up their right to Child Benefit long ago, but at least that “only” meant losing £2,000 in total in respect of their two kids. There are another two child-related issues though:
- If someone in a household has income over £100,000, then the right to 30 hours a week free childcare for 3 and 4 year-olds is lost! That’s worth much more than £2,000.
- And you also lose the right to a Tax-Free Childcare account, which could be worth up to £2,000 a year *per child*.
If one takes into account the value of the childcare hours, this person is actually going to find themselves with an effective tax rate way, way in excess of 100% on the first chunk of income over £100,000. This is not an obscure edge case; every year we’ll spot a couple of cases where people have to be careful not to jeopardise free and Tax-Free childcare by creeping over the £100k mark (you can sometimes recover the situation after the event with carried-back charitable donations, if you’re alive to it).
The issue doesn’t just affect people with their own company, making choices about personal income, of course. It applies to anybody managing a balance between consumption and saving, and trying their best to avoid cliff edges where entitlements are lost. Someone with a job could have been managing those issues by making pension contributions to keep their effective income below £50,000 or £100,000 - but the point will come where they no longer have enough money for the present day if they do that.
A government can really only employ fiscal drag as a tactic for a limited duration before things just don’t add up any more. For many people, things are not adding up any more.
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